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Steady Growth ❨Conservative❩

Equity · Stocks · Started Apr 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
18.5%
Max Drawdown
12.0%
Trades
35
Win Trades
60.0%
Profit Factor
9.60
Win Months
69.8%
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Trend-following Sector Rotation

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20230.10.60.71.2-2.4-1.40.61.16.26.8
2024-2.32.45.4-2.24.2-0.92.02.75.3-4.6-1.5-1.19.0
20252.61.83.11.82.54.3-1.45.36.52.42.51.838.8
202610.65.3-6.94.61.7-2.01.02.6-2.0-1.413.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/12/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age43 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades35
# Profitable21
% Profitable60.0%
Avg trade duration402.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown12.0%
drawdown periodMarch 19, 2025 - April 08, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)18.5%
Avg win$1,756
Avg loss$386

Ratios

W:L ratio9.58
Sharpe Ratio1.19
Sortino Ratio1.72
Calmar Ratio2.10

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.43
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life86.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-3.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)18.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)20.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity4.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss12.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)346
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)939
Performance-weighted percentile414
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)832

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$386
Avg Win$1,756
# Winners21
Sum Trade PL (losers)$5,404
Sum Trade PL (winners)$36,883
Num Months Winners30
# Losers14
% Winners60.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct14865

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table43

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)579083
Avg Position Time (hrs)9651.38
Avg Trade Length402.10
Last Trade Ago11

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.71
Daily leverage (max)2.21

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.33
Treynor Index0.13

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.56
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.05
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.25
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.32
Hold-and-Hope Ratio2.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.18
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.58
df40
t2.98
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.70
Sortino ratio3.52
Upside Potential Ratio5.11
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms13
N of observations41
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error39
t(b)3.09
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.06
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.17
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.54
df40
t2.90
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.65
Sortino ratio3.31
Upside Potential Ratio4.89
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms13
N of observations41
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error39
t(b)3.10
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.04
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)0.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.16
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.60
df915
t2.99
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.65
Sortino ratio2.29
Upside Potential Ratio9.50
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.52
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms529
N negative terms387
N of observations916
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error914
t(b)14.64
p(b)0
t(a)2.31
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.16
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.54
df915
t2.88
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.59
Sortino ratio2.20
Upside Potential Ratio9.37
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.52
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms529
N negative terms387
N of observations916
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error914
t(b)14.73
p(b)0
t(a)2.26
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.01
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.08
df130
t0.06
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.85
Sortino ratio0.11
Upside Potential Ratio8.28
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms61
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.01
r0.71
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)11.57
p(b)0.09
t(a)-0.63
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)0.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean0.00
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.04
df130
t0.03
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.81
Sortino ratio0.05
Upside Potential Ratio8.21
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms61
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.01
r0.71
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)11.59
p(b)0.09
t(a)-0.63
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)0.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations41
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1.02
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations916
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low22
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.35
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.58
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-6.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations53
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-391579168
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)20
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.29
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.22
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.47
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.87
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal16.51
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.78
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.84
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.92

Trading record

Placed 77 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
IAU long160Aug 13, 2026Oct 13, 2026($1,114)
EMLC long789Jan 27, 2025Oct 13, 2026$73
FLSW long437Jan 27, 2025Sep 29, 2026$1,051
VNQI long93Aug 13, 2026Sep 29, 2026($216)
LQD long206Jun 30, 2025Jul 27, 2026($452)
IAU long630Oct 27, 2023Jun 29, 2026$14,810
VNQI long647Feb 27, 2025Jun 15, 2026$435
SGOV long1411May 28, 2024Apr 27, 2026$29
MCHI long47Nov 9, 2023Dec 18, 2025$858
LQD long164Nov 27, 2023May 27, 2025$133
VOO long15Nov 27, 2023Mar 27, 2025$1,722
VNQI long402Nov 27, 2023Dec 27, 2024($206)
FLSW long272Nov 27, 2023Nov 27, 2024$551
EMLC long365Jul 29, 2024Nov 27, 2024($56)
FEZ long185Nov 27, 2023Nov 27, 2024$372
FLJP long317Nov 27, 2023Oct 28, 2024$352
CMDY long252Mar 27, 2024Jul 29, 2024($265)
EMLC long357May 28, 2024Jun 27, 2024($253)
SGOV long1195Sep 29, 2023May 28, 2024$50
EMLC long353Nov 27, 2023Apr 29, 2024($255)
CMDY long289Jul 28, 2023Nov 27, 2023($397)
SGOV long1549Apr 12, 2023Sep 27, 2023$202
IAU long415May 30, 2023Sep 27, 2023($590)
EMLC long403May 30, 2023Sep 27, 2023($410)
VNQI long241Jul 28, 2023Aug 28, 2023($659)
LQD long95May 30, 2023Aug 28, 2023($182)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.